NHS Futures: Twenty-Thirty

Significant developments are anticipated in the provision of healthcare over the next 20 years, some driven by technological innovation and some by policy and organisational changes. Yet the NHS will need to seek greater efficiencies in coming years, if only to keep pace with increasing demand. While predicting the future of healthcare with any degree of certainty isn’t possible, we can use scenario planning methods to develop possible and plausible futures.

In a PIRU project, Chris Evennett and I worked with the Department of Health to identify key strategic influences on the demand for and supply of health and social care over the next 20 years. The project developed four high-level scenarios for the future in order to inform modelling future supply and demand. These scenarios were developed in consultation with key stakeholders from healthcare, and were:

The Gadget Show – high technology adoption with high public engagement

Plural Provision – low technology adoption with high public engagement

Stability with Integration – low technology adoption with low public engagement

Modern Traditional – high technology adoption with low public engagement The report discusses the opportunities and risks presented by each of the scenarios.

The report "Twenty-Thirty: Health Care Scenarios - exploring potential changes in health care in England over the next 20 years" was published in September 2013. You can download a copy of the report here.