NHS Futures: Twenty-Thirty

Significant developments are
anticipated in the provision of healthcare over the next 20 years, some driven
by technological innovation and some by policy and organisational changes. Yet
the NHS will need to seek greater efficiencies in coming years, if only to keep
pace with increasing demand. While predicting the future of healthcare with any
degree of certainty isn’t possible, we can use scenario planning methods to
develop possible and plausible futures.
In a PIRU project, Chris Evennett
and I worked with the Department of Health to identify key strategic influences
on the demand for and supply of health and social care over the next 20 years.
The project developed four high-level scenarios for the future
in order to inform modelling future supply and demand. These scenarios
were developed in consultation with key stakeholders from healthcare, and were:
The Gadget Show – high
technology adoption with high public engagement
Plural Provision – low
technology adoption with high public engagement
Stability with Integration – low
technology adoption with low public engagement
Modern Traditional – high
technology adoption with low public engagement The report discusses the
opportunities and risks presented by each of the scenarios.
The report
"Twenty-Thirty: Health Care Scenarios - exploring potential changes in
health care in England over the next 20 years" was published in
September 2013.
You can download a
copy of the report here.